3Q is a very bumpy ride for SREITs investors, the YTD average capital loss is growing significantly bigger, especially in the last trading week. The fed rate has increased from 1.5% to 1.75% at the end of June to 3% to 3.25% at the end of September. The merger between Mapletree Commercial Trust and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust has completed in early August. As for the privatization of Frasers Hospitality Trust, the resolution did not pass through, by a very slight margin.
Overall YTD Returns
Below is the graph for returns of Singapore REITs as of 9M 2022, including Business Trusts - Ascendas India Trust & Dasin Retail Trust. Note that the dividend is based on the ex-dividend date.
As you could see from above, only 6 counters are having positive YTD returns. Next, let's look at the detailed table:
The average dividend is at 4.77% (based on ex-dividend date) and the average capital loss is at -17.92%, total up to -13.14%. How about MACFK counters?
*PRIME US REIT is included due to the 30% interest in the REIT manager by Keppel Capital Two Pte. Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Capital Management Pte Ltd and in turn, wholly-owned by Keppel Capital Holdings Pte. Ltd. which is the asset management arm of Keppel Corporation Limited.
For MACFK counters, the average dividend is 4.23% (based on ex-dividend date) and the average capital loss is at -15.62%, total up to -11.39%. The return is slightly better than the average of 40 counters.
Ranking
Top 10 Highest Returns
Only 6 out of the top 10 are having positive returns this time. 5 are MACFK counters.
Top 10 Lowest Returns
2 pure data centre REITs and 3 US Office REITs are in the top 10 lowest returns. 3 are from MACFK counters.
Statistics for Returns
| Total Return, % | Qty |
|---|---|
| >0% | 6 |
| > -5% to 0% | 3 |
| > -10% to -5% | 9 |
| > -15% to -10% | 3 |
| > -20% to -15% | 6 |
| > -25% to -20% | 7 |
| <= -25% | 6 |
Only 6 counters have positive YTD returns and 13 counters are having YTD loss for more than 20%.
Author's Opinion
According to Investopedia, a 10% to 20% decline from the recent peak is considered a correction; while more than a 20% decline from the recent peak is considered a bear market. As I do not track the recent peak of individual SREITs, so I would take the average YTD capital loss as a benchmark. The current YTD capital loss is -17.9% implying we are in the correction stage and we are quite close to the bear market stage. Let's see whether 4Q will step into the bear territory.
You could also refer below for more information:
SREITs Dashboard - Detailed information on individual Singapore REIT
SREITs Data - Overview and Detail of Singapore REIT
REIT Review - List of previous REIT analysis posts
Singapore REITs Post Telegram Channel - Join to receive posts for Singapore REITs
REIT-TIREMENT Patreon - Support my work and get exclusive contents
REIT-TIREMENT Facebook Page - Support by liking my Facebook Page
REIT Investing Community - Facebook Group where members share and discuss REIT topic
*Disclaimer: Materials in this blog are based on my research and opinion which I don't guarantee accuracy, completeness, and reliability. It should not be taken as financial advice or a statement of fact. I shall not be held liable for errors, omissions and loss or damage due to the use of the material in this blog. Under no circumstances does the information presented on this blog represent a buy, sell, or hold recommendation on any security, please always do your own due diligence before any decision is made.
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