Theoretical Pegged Price for ALOG + ESR-REIT & MCT + MNACT Mergers

There are quite a number of REITs mergers in recent years, first the ESR-REIT + Viva Industrial Trust; secondly Ascott Residence Trust + Ascendas Hospitality Trust and thirdly Fraser Logistics & Industrial Trust + Frasers Commercial Trust. The merger spree did not stop at 3, it is followed by OUE Commercial + OUE Hospitality Trust and then CapitaLand Mall Trust + CapitaLand Commercial Trust. Subsequently, there is a proposed merger of ESR-REIT + Sabana Industrial REIT, however, it did not go through in the end though. 

Image by naor eliyahu from Pixabay

The 2 recently proposed mergers are ESR-REIT + ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust and Mapletree Commercial Trust + Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust. Many bloggers and YouTubers have posted about the pros, cons as well as future prospects of these mergers, so I would not go through that again. Instead, I would share the theoretical pegged price table which no one has shared to date.

1) ESR-REIT + ALOG Merger

Based on the above consideration, below is the theoretical pegged price table:

The EGM would be conducted on 27 Jan 2022, AM for ESR-REIT and PM for ALOG. If the deal goes through, then it is expected to be completed by March. Refer below for indicative timeline:

2) MCT + MNACT Merger

Based on the above options, I have indicated 4 decimal points in the table below to have a better comparison of both options:

If you are MNACT unitholders, to maximize your benefit, scheme 2 is the better option when MCT price is above (and equal to) S$ 2.01. Vice versa, scheme 1 is the better option when MCT price is below (and equal to) S$ 2.00. Although the difference is small, it would be a good sum if one is holding substantial units of MNACT. The EGM is expected to be held in April, and the merger is expected to be completed in June if the deal goes through. Below is the indicative timeline:

Compare the REITs share price movement after a week of both merger announcements: ESR-REIT rose around 2%; ALOG declined around 5% while MCT declined around 8%. Whereas for MNACT, the share price rose before the announcement and remain more or less the same after a week of announcement. From these price movements, one can gauge the mergers are more in favor to which REIT.

For those who are interested in reading more about these mergers, you could refer below for conslidated blog posts and videos: 

A) ESR-REIT + ALOG merger:

1. ESR-REIT and ARA Logos to be a Top 5 Industrial S-REIT in S$1.4 Billion Merger Bid by The Smart Investor
2. 10 answers to the Proposed Merger of ESR-REIT and ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust by Investor-One
3. ESR REIT Merger with ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust: Is this a bad deal for ARA REIT? Should Unitholders vote in favour of the merger at the EGM? by Financial Horse
4. ESR-REIT and ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust propose to merge by Value Invest Asia
5. Is ESR REIT A Good Buy Now in 2021? by SG Stock Market Investor

YouTube

1. ESR REIT merger with ARA LOGOS by Financial Mall

B) MCT + MNACT merger:

1. MCT and MNACT S-REIT Merger – everything you need to know by Dr Wealth
2. Thoughts about the Mapletree Commercial Trust, Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust Merger by Investment Moats
3. Why I dislike the Mapletree Commercial Trust Merger (as a Unitholder) by Financial Horse
4. The Merger Into Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust- What Should Existing Mapletree Trusts Investors Do? by Investment Income for Life
5. 4 Things To Know About Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU) And Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: RW0U) Merger by Dollars and Sense
6. Proposed Merger of Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and Mapletree Commercial Trust – Key Details and My Thoughts by The Singaporean Investor
7. 2 Mapletree REITs to Be Merged a S$4.2 Billion Deal: 5 Key Things Investors Should Know by The Smart Investor
8. My thoughts on MCT (Ketchup) x MNACT (Chili) = MPACT (Nacho cheese) by CompoundingDividendxDividend
9. MCT and MNACT Merger by My Sweet Retirement
10. Are REITs Mergers Like Mapletree Profitable for Investors? by The Smart Investor
11. Proposed Merger of MCT & MNACT - Most Beneficial Option by Just A Singaporean Son
12. Why I am not buying Mapletree Commercial Trust at $1.84 by Financial Horse
13. My Thoughts and Plan for MCT + MNACT = MPACT by Live Rich Life Fre
14. Making An MPACT : Key Issues Of The Mapletree Merger by Donuts Farm
15. The Mapletree Merger: The Bedokian’s Take by The Bedokian Portfolio

YouTube

1. Why Mapletree Commercial Trust Merging With MNACT! 💥 Is Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust A Buy? by The Astute Parent

2. What's wrong with Mapletree Commercial Trust & Mapletree NAC Merger? by Gabriel Yap

3. Mapletree REITs Merger - What It Means For Shareholders by The Fifth Person

4. Proposed merger on Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT) & Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MNACT) by Never Count On Others

5. Mapletree REITs merger, opportunities for growth? by Financial Mall

6. Mapletree REITs Merger | What You Need To Know! by Kelvin Learns Investing

You could also refer below for more information:

SREITs Dashboard - Detailed information on individual Singapore REIT

SREITs Data - Overview and Detail of Singapore REIT

REIT Analysis - List of previous REIT analysis posts

And you could join the following to support my work:

Singapore REITs Post Telegram Channel - Join to receive posts for Singapore REITs

REIT-TIREMENT Patreon - Support my work and get exclusive contents

REIT-TIREMENT Facebook Page - Support by liking my Facebook Page

REIT Investing Community - Facebook Group where members share and discuss REIT topic

*Disclaimer: Materials in this blog are based on my research and opinion which I don't guarantee accuracy, completeness, and reliability. It should not be taken as financial advice or a statement of fact. I shall not be held liable for errors, omissions and loss or damage as a result of the use of the material in this blog. Under no circumstances does the information presented on this blog represent a buy, sell, or hold recommendation on any security, please always do your own due diligence before any decision is made.